A MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR THE SPREAD AND CONTROL OF CHICKEN POX(VARICELLA)

ABSTRACT

Chickenpox (varicella) is a highly transmissible infection primarily caused by an herpes virus called Varicella Zoster, and is one of the commonly reported childhood disease. This disease is an airborne disease and highly communicable which spreads from person to person either by direct contact with the fluid from the blisters or through secretions from the respiratory tract (i.e. infected person’s coughing or sneezing) or by coming in contact with infected person’s clothing.

In this project, we will employ the  Susceptible-Latent-Infective-Recovered  compartmental model which is used to describe the spread and control of chicken pox diseases. We will establish the existence of equilibrium states- The diseases free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium.We will carry out the stability analysis of the diseases free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium state of the model. We will complete this project by solving for the reproductive number and obtaining the graphical analysis of the model.         For the  model to be applicable, once a person has recovered from the disease, they receive lifelong immunity.