LIQUIDITY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE FLUNCTUATION AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN NIGERIA’S MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY

ABSTRACT

This study examines liquidity, foreign exchange flunctuation and financial   performance in Nigeria’s manufacturing industry. This study commences with a brief introduction of the content, background and scope of the work. The objectives, research questions, hypotheses, review of relevant literature and applicable theories are fully discussed. The study adopts the use of secondary data from 10 manufacturing firms listed on the Nigeria stock exchange for five years (2006-2016). Relevant data were extracted from the published financial reports, CBN bulletin, and National bureau of statistics corporate website. The Ex-post facto research method is adopted for the purpose of achieving the objectives of the study. Panel data is applied to the study for the purpose of capturing the space and time dimensions. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyses were adopted.

The financial performance indicator is (dependent variable) is used alongside the independent variable (liquidity and foreign exchange fluctuation). The panel data regression was subjected to Hausman test to make appropriate choice between fixed effect estimator and random effect estimator.

The result stated that considering the result of the empirical analysis, there are different patterns of relationship that were displayed between the dependent variables and independent variables in our model; there is a significant relationship between liquidity and foreign exchange fluctuation as proxy by current asset ratio, acid test ratio, cash and cash equivalent ratio, inflation rate, interest rate, exchange rate of manufacturing firms, all the independent variables show a significant relationship with dependent variable.

The study concludes that there is a significant relationship between liquidity, foreign exchange fluctuation and performance.  

The study recommended that; Government should ensure that capital expenditure and recurrent expenditure are properly managed in a manner that it will raise the nation’s production capacity; Government should direct its expenditure towards the productive sectors like manufacturing sector as it would reduce the cost of doing business as well as raise the standard living of poor ones in the country; There is need for efficient management of exchange, inflation and liqudity rates in such a way to stimulate the economy to grow; That foreign exchange rate could be maintained at a low rate if there is a consistent growth in corporate earnings.

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1.            BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

Over the years, it has been observed that the financial performance of any business can be assessed using the concept of liquidity. Liquidity is a major concept that has been a source of worry to the management of firms about the uncertainty of the future. Talking about the liquidity of an asset, it means how quickly it can be transformed into cash. It is the ability of the company to convert its assets into cash.

When referring to a company’s liquidity one usually means its ability to meet its current liabilities and is usually measured by different financial ratios (www.investorwords.com). According to Reider and Heyler (2003), liquidity refers to having an adequate cash flow that allows the business to make necessary payments and ensure the continuity of operations. Liquidity relates to solvency of a firm’s overall financial position.

Also, when discussing on liquidity, one needs to have in mind the concept of Liquidity management ; which requires maintaining liquidity in day to day operations to ensure its smooth running and meet its obligations when they fall due (Eljelly, 2004). With this, it can be said that the objective of business owners and managers is to conceive a strategy of managing all its day to day operations in order to meet their obligations as they fall due and increases profitability and shareholders value. The importance of liquidity management as it affects corporate profitability in today’s business cannot be over emphasis. Liquidity ratios are used for liquidity management in every organization. That greatly have effect on profitability of organization.

Efficient liquidity management involves planning and controlling current assets and current liabilities in such a manner that eliminates the risk of the inability to meet due short-term obligations, on one hand, and avoids excessive investment in these assets, on the other. This is due in part to the reduction of the probability of running out of cash in the presence of liquid assets. Liquidity is having enough money in form of cash, to meet ones financial obligations.

In terms of accounting, liquidity can be defined as the ability to satisfy short-term obligation as they fall due. In terms of investment, it is the ability to quickly convert an investment portfolio to cash with little or no loss in value.

 A liquid company is one that stores enough liquid assets and cash together with the ability to raise funds quickly from other source to enable it meet its payment obligation and financial commitment in a timely manner. Cash is the most liquid asset of all.

There are various ratios used to measure liquidity. These include: the current ratio, which is the simplest measure and is calculated by dividing total current assets by total current liabilities; and the quick ratio, calculated by deducting inventories from current assets and then dividing the remainder by current liabilities (Mudida & Ngene, 2010). Even though the two ratios seems to be similar, the quick ratio provides a more accurate assessment of a business’s ability to pay its current liabilities. The quick ratio takes into account the most liquid of all current assets. Inventory is the least liquid because it is not speedily convertible to cash. The quick ratio is a reasonable marker of a business’s short term liquidity. The higher the quick ratio the better the position of the business. 

Other liquidity ratios include: stock/ inventory turnover or rate of stock turnover; stock/ inventory holding period; working capital turnover; cash and cash equivalent ratio; cash flow to debt ratio; debtors turnover ratio; debtors or average collection period; creditors payment period e.t.c

The inability of a company to pay its creditors on time and continue not to honor its obligations to the suppliers of credit, services, and goods can be said to be a sick company or bankrupt company. A company’s inability to meet the short term liabilities may affect the company’s operations and in many cases it may affect its reputation too. Lack of cash or liquid assets on hand may force a company to miss the incentives given by the suppliers of credit, services, and goods. Loss of such incentives may result in higher cost of goods which in turn affect the profitability of the business. So there is always a need for the company to maintain certain degree of liquidity.

Exchange rate is the price of one country’s currency expressed in terms of some other currency. It determines the relative prices of domestic and foreign goods, as well as the strength of external sector participation in the international trade. Exchange rate regime and interest rate remain important issues of discourse in the International finance as well as in developing nations, with more economies embracing trade liberalization as a requisite for economic growth (Obansa, Okoroafor, Aluko and Millicent, 2013).

The performance of the manufacturing sector since 1986 has been poorly attributed to macroeconomic instability and inconsistence in the exchange rate. The manufacturing sector is weak and heavily import dependent. It is in the light of the foregoing that this study seeks to evaluate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the Nigeria manufacturing sector output from the year 2000 to 2015.

While embarking on a research, Ewa, (2011) agreed that the exchange rate of the naira was relatively stable between 1973 and 1979 during the oil boom era and when  agricultural products accounted for more than 70% of the nation’s gross domestic products (GDP). In 1986 when Federal government adopted Structural Adjustment Policy (SAP) the country moved from a peg regime to a flexible exchange rate regime where exchange rate is left completely to be determined by market forces but rather the prevailing system is the managed float whereby monetary authorities intervene periodically in the foreign exchange market in order to attain some strategic objectives (Mordi, 2006)

Following the fluctuation of the Naira in 1986, a policy induced by the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), the subject of exchange rate fluctuations has become a topical issue in Nigeria. This is because it is the goal of every economy to have a stable rate of exchange with its trading partners. In Nigeria, this goal was not realized in spite of the fact that the country embarked on devaluation to promote export and stabilize the rate of exchange. The failure to realize this goal subjected the Nigerian manufacturing sector to the challenge of a constantly fluctuating exchange rate. This was not only necessitated by the devaluation of the naira but the weak and narrow productive base of the sector and the rising import bills also strengthened it. In order to stem this development and ensure a stable exchange rate, the monetary authority put in place a number of exchange rate policies. However, very little achievement was made in stabilizing the rate of exchange. As a consequence, the problem of exchange rate fluctuations persisted throughout the study period.

 In an advanced country, the manufacturing sector is a leading sector in many aspects. It is an avenue for increasing productivity in relation to import substitution and export expansion, creating foreign exchange earning capacity, raising employment, promoting the growth of investment at a faster rate than any other sector of the economy, as well as wider and more efficient linkage among different sectors (Fakiyesi, 2005). But the Nigerian economy is under-industrialized and its capacity utilization is also low. This is in spite of the fact that manufacturing is the fastest growing sector since 1973/74 (Obadan, 1994). The sector has become increasingly dependent on the external sector for import of non-labour input (Okigbo, 1993). Inability to import therefore, can impact negatively on manufacturing production.

In Nigeria, exchange rate has changed within the time frame from regulated to deregulated regimes. The impact of fluctuations in exchange rate on manufacturing output had not received adequate attention. This paper attempts to give attention to the issue.

Exchange rate fluctuations affect operating cash flows and firm value through translation, transaction, and economic effects of exchange rate risk exposure. (Choi and Prasad, 1995).Exchange rate movements have been a big concern for investors, analyst, managers and shareholders since the abolishment of the fixed exchange rate system of Bretton Woods in 1971. This system was replaced by a floating rates system in which the price of currencies is determined by supply and demand of money. Exchange rates may affect a firm through a variety of business operation models: a firm may produce at home for export sales as well as domestic sales, a firm may produce with imported as well as domestic components, a firm may produce the same product or a different product at plants abroad. The model of the firm must be broad enough to capture all of these channels. The firm described below is a multinational firm (producing and selling at home and abroad) that uses both foreign and domestic components.

The profitability of a company can be described as its ability to generate income which surpasses its expenses. Profitability is usually measured by different ratios such as ROA 2 and ROE. The management of liquidity determines to a large extent the quantity of profit that results as well as the wealth of stakeholders (Ben, 2008). A company in order to survive must remain liquid as failure to meet its compulsions in due time results in bad credit rating by the short term creditors, reduction in the value of reputation in the market and may ultimately lead to bankruptcy (Bhavet, 2011). Thus a good and firm financial management policy seeks to maintain adequate liquidity in order to meet its short-term maturing obligations without diminishing profitability. However the principal focus of most organizations is profitability maximization while the concern for efficient management of liquid assets is neglected. This perspective is justified by the belief that profitability and liquidity are conflicting objectives. Therefore a company can only pursue one at the expense of the other, in consonance with the tradeoff theory of liquidity and profitability. According to Padachi (2006) a firm is required to maintain a balance between liquidity and profitability while conducting its daily activities. Profitability is directly affected by both inadequate and surplus liquidity (Ogundipe, Idowu & Ogundipe, 2012). For instance, when the “necessary” level of liquid assets is exceeded, their surpluses when the market risks remain stable become a source of ineffective utilization of resources which has an adverse effect on profitability. Liquidity-profitability relationship is linked with the continuance of the appropriate intensity of working capital. Profitability has to do with making an adequate return on the capital and assets invested in the business. Liquidity is having an adequate cash flow that 3 allows the business to make necessary payments and ensure the continuity of operations. The liquidity is essential for company existence. The significance of liquidity to a company performance might lead to the conclusion that it determines the profitability level of a company (Eljelly, 2004).

 

 

1.2  STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM

Duttweiler (2009) defines liquidity as the capacity to fulfill all payment obligations as and when they fall due. Since it is done in cash, liquidity relates to flows of cash only. Not being able to perform leads to a condition of illiquidity. Firms can use their liquid assets to finance their activities and investments when external sources of financing are not available as argued by Liargovas and Skandalis (2008). Higher liquidity can allow a firm to deal with unexpected contingencies and to cope with its obligations during periods of low earnings but an abundance of liquidity may do more harm than good.  

Most failed businesses resulted from cash flow problem. This is highly contributed by poor management which forces companies to go to liquidation. A number of companies have faced liquidity problems in the last decade. One of the major reasons that may cause liquidation is illiquidity and inability to make adequate profit. These are some of the basic ingredient of measuring the “going concern” of an establishment. For these reasons companies are developing various strategies to improve their liquidity position. Strategies which can be adapted within the firm to improve liquidity and cash flows concern the management of working capital, areas which are usually neglected in times of favorable business conditions (Pass and Pike, 1984).

Liquidity management and profitability are very important issues in the growth and survival of business and the ability to handle the trade-off between the two a source of concern for financial managers.

The problems to be addressed by this study are to evaluate the relationship between liquidity management and financial performances of some listed manufacturing companies in Nigeria, finding the effect of changes in liquidity levels on profitability of manufacturing companies in Nigeria and the research work also examines the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria from 2005 to 2015, a period of 10 years.

The argument is that fluctuations in exchange rate adversely affect output of the manufacturing sector. This is because Nigerian manufacturing is highly dependent on import of inputs and capital goods. These are paid for in foreign exchange whose rate of exchange is unstable. Thus, this apparent fluctuation is bound to adversely affect activities in the sector that is dependent on external sources for its productive inputs.

1.3 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY

The main objective of the study is to find out the impact of liquidity and foreign exchange flunctuation on the financial performances in manufacturing industries Nigeria.

Other objectives may include:

  1. To examine the effect of current assets ratio on the financial performance of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.
  2. To examine the effect of Acid Test or Quick Test Ratio on the financial performance of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.
  3. To examine the impact of cash and cash equivalent ratio on the financial performance of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.
  4. To show how exchange rate affects the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.
  5. To examine the impact of inflation rate on the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

 

 

 

1.4  RESERCH QUESTION

The study is aimed at finding solution to the following questions:

  1. What is the relationship between current assets ratio and the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria?
  2. What is the relationship between the Acid test ratio on the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria?
  3. What is the effect of cash and cash equivalent ratio on the financial performance of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria?
  4. What is the relationship between exchange rate and financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria?
  5. What is the impact of inflation rate on the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria?

1.5  RESEARCH HYPOTHESIS

In order to find solutions to the above mentioned problems, the following hypothesis need to be formulated:

Hypothesis 1

H0: Current Assets Ratio does not have any significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

H1: Current Assets Ratio does have significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

Hypothesis 2

H0: Acid test ratio does not have any significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

H1: Acid test ratio have significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

Hypothesis 3

H0: cash and cash equivalent ratio does not have any significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

H1: cash and cash equivalent ratio have significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

 Hypothesis 4

H0: exchange rate ratio does not have any significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

H1: exchange rate ratio have significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

Hypothesis 5

H0: inflation rate does not have any significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

H1: inflation rate have significant relationship with the financial performances of the manufacturing industry in Nigeria.

 

1.6  SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY

CORPORATE MANAGERS: The study will help corporate managers to reduce non-cash flows risk because of local currency devaluation, The study incorporates the effect of different currency exchange rates to the world hard currencies namely the United States Dollar, the Euro, the Sterling Pound, the Japanese Yen and others like the South African Rand. Foreign exchange risk for such firms affect not only the values of foreign operating cash flows, but also the foreign asset and liability values reported in consolidated financial statements.

FINANCIAL INVESTORS: Understanding of the effect of liquidity and foreign exchange rates on firms financial performance is equally important for the financial investors for computing the amount of risk associated with such variation and consequently the risk involved in their investment decisions. The result of the study will therefore offer investors a foundation upon which to make strategic decisions and choose investment strategy.

SHAREHOLDERS: The study will help shareholders understand and learn the effects of foreign exchange on the firm’s profits. Since this study assesses the existing capacity in the country for foreign currency risk management, its findings generate more knowledge in this area.

RESERCHERS: The findings of the study are of great importance to help researchers, it adds to the body of empirical literature on the effect of liquidity and exchange rate to firms financial performance; Among the areas of importance are: The study will enhance export and import terms to help businesses remain competitive.

1.7  SCOPE OF THE STUDY

The scope of this research work is limited to 10 manufacturing firms in Nigeria and they include; 7-Up Bottling Company, Cadbury Nigeria Plc, Flour Mills Of Nigeria Plc, Guinness Nigeria Plc, National Salt Company Of Nigeria Plc, Nestle Nigeria Plc, Nigerian Breweries Plc, Northern Nigeria Flour Mill Plc, Union Dicon Salt Plc and  U T C Nigeria Plc.

The ten manufacturing firms were chosen because of their easy accessibility of annual financial statement reports and for data computation. The geographical area of the study is Nigeria and the secondary data for the study will cover the time frame of 2005 to 2015. This study intends to concentrate on the effect of liquidity and foreign exchange fluctuation on the financial performances of listed manufacturing firms in Nigeria.

1.8  LIMITATION OF THE STUDY

This project work is limited to only the manufacturing industries in Nigeria due to population size, logistics and financial constraint. The project work should have incorporated all the manufacturing companies in Nigeria, but they are too confidential and this has made the researcher to limit his scope to examine only 10 manufacturing industries in Nigeria.

1.9  OPERATIONALISATION OF VARIABLES

The variables for this research will therefore be operationalized here.

Y=f(X)

Y = Financial Performance (FP)

X = Liquidity (L); Foreign Exchange Fluctuation (FEF)

Where Y = Dependent variable

            X = Independent variable

X= x1, x2, x3, x4, x5

x1 =Current Assets Ratio (CAR)

x2 = Acid Test Ratio (ATR)

x3 = Cash and Cash Equivalent Ratio (CCER)

x4= Exchange Rate (ER)

x5= Inflation Rate (IR)

Y= f(x1)…………………………………………………………….. (1)

Y=f(x2) …………………………………………………………….. (2)

Y= f(x3)…………………………………………………………….. (3)

Y= f(x4)…………………………………………………………….. (4)

Y= f(x5)…………………………………………………………….. (5)

1.10          DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS.

INFLATION RATE

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. High inflation rates can have adverse consequences on the financial performance of a company.

CURRENT ASSETS RATIO

The current ratio is mainly used to give an idea of a company's ability to pay back its liabilities (debt and accounts payable) with its assets (cash, marketable securities, inventory, accounts receivable). As such, current ratio can be used to make a rough estimate of a company's financial health.

ACID TEST RATIO

In finance, the acid-test or quick ratio or liquidity ratio measures the ability of a company to use its near cash or quick assets to extinguish or retire its current liabilities immediately. Quick assets include those current assets that presumably can be quickly converted to cash at close to their book values.

CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENT RATIO

The cash ratio is the ratio of a company's total cash and cash equivalents to its current liabilities. A cash equivalent is a highly liquid investment having a maturity of three months or less. It should be at minimal risk of a change in value. Examples of cash equivalents are: Certificates of deposit. Commercial paper.

EXCHANGE RATE

In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another. It is also regarded as the value of one country’s currency in relation to another currency.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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